The ruble, “untied the leash” from oil: mysteries of the monetary system

At first glance the fed there are no mysteries, no guessing. All waited for her to raise her — she raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75–1% per annum from a level of 0.5–0.75%. Increments of lift too, it was transparent and expected. So what is there mystery?


photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Actually, itself, a new bet puzzles does not contain. But not in vain for the text of the review of the decisions of the fed interest is the same as to the numbers of the decision itself. Remember, Andrey Mironov was a stage number, in which he asserted: “I ain’t the words, I dance the main thing”? About the same with the March fed meeting. The words of the review were more important than most new bets.

It’s time to turn to the mysteries. Mystery the first: the fed rate is increased, and the dollar — no. Mystery two: the fed rate is increased, and the oil, instead of cheaper, expensive. Riddle the third: the fed supported the ruble, why would it?

A lot of puzzles, and the answer General. Markets perezaluzhenie on the dollar. Everything is so believed that the fed will raise interest rates, not simply put it in quotes, but reported a little something extra based on what the fed may move on to a run at higher rates. However, members of the Federal open market Committee, the fed clearly confirmed that climbs this year, as promised, there were only two. That’s a dollar and not expensive.

The same with oil. Usually the dollar and a barrel sitting on a swing: the price of the dollar up and the price of a barrel down. And Vice versa. And then the swings seem to be broken, but it’s not. The fact is that the fed has cooled some expectations. Once the dollar has welcomed the decision slightly superheated, the reaction to the decision is quite logical — the oil has risen.

Of course, the game continues. Things can change. And the first factor of change in the fed’s forecast may be the fiscal policy of Donald trump. If the President prostimulirujte price growth in the us economy, the fed may change his mind. Everything will depend on the specific numbers.

Now, about the ruble. On the one hand, the answer has already sounded: the fed supported the ruble, because her decision has caused rise in price of oil. But that’s not all.

We are witnessing a strange phenomenon: the ruble increases the number of degrees of its freedom from oil prices. It is, of course, is still associated with it, but the length of the conditional “leash” has grown considerably. However, the link with oil, in principle, should mean that the prospects of the ruble, to put it mildly, not. The current level of oil prices is fraught with second wave “shale revolution”. Therefore, OPEC may decide that it’s time to get on the market that you can, and quickly. Preference the benefits of these future benefits in this case means the abandonment of further production cuts. Then prices revert down to the border, when shale production will become unprofitable. But technology develops, and shale extraction cheaper.

And the ruble is kept. Support for the hard policy of the Central Bank. Its consequence — the high-grade Russian securities, and attracting foreign investors. But this source is valid as long as the money is not more expensive in the West. The fed shows that there is a reference to the rise in prices is already underway. Even if the Bank of Russia its rate will not reduce, the future of the ruble anxious.