photo: Gennady Cherkasov
Senior officials should not comment on the exchange rate. This opinion was expressed by adviser to the Russian President Sergei Glazyev on the sidelines of the ongoing international Yalta economic forum. “I think Federal officials not to give any estimates on the exchange rate, because it creates the impression that either they manipulate the rate, either someone is manipulating them,” said Glazyev. According to him, “any careless phrase regarding the ruble rate manipulators are able to give profits due to the depreciation of the ruble-denominated income and savings of all the others.”
In fact, in the Arsenal of the presidential adviser many ideas, to put it mildly, dubious. Here in Yalta he again voiced his favorite, but not the indisputable thesis that the ruble is manipulated by American speculators, that free floating of the ruble should be canceled and the course to consolidate administrative for three to five years. But with regard to his statement about the ban on comments of course for Ministers and their deputies, personally I am ready to subscribe under each word Glazyev.
The fact that over the last month and a half we got hit with avalanche of statements of authority figures on the ruble exchange rate with a common refrain: “it is too stronger, make us weaker national currency”.
The ruble is stronger than it should be based on fundamental values, over and over again repeated by the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin. The ruble is overvalued by 10-12 %, echoes Anton Siluanov, the Finance Minister, whose office passed from words to business, and for three months conducting operations in the open market for the purchase of currency. The goal is the same: to besiege “presumptuous” ruble.
On the eve of his party and the choir added the Minister of agriculture Alexander Tkachyov, who called the current strengthening of the ruble threatens to export of Russian agricultural products. And categorically added that rural exporters the desired rate of 60 rubles to the dollar — and the point (now, recall, the dollar is worth 56 kopecks).
Went even further, Deputy Minister of industry and trade of the Russian Federation Vasily Osmakov, who said that the optimal rate for Russian companies would be the range of 60-65 rubles per dollar. Of course, farmers and Industrialists weak ruble is the best — their products in this course receives a competitive advantage and better sold abroad.
But I’d like to ask governing these industries masters, as they managed to work 4-5 years ago when the dollar was worth 30 rubles? But it worked somehow, and even in the country was economic growth, which is not in sight . Yes, oil was then twice as expensive than it is now. But what does this have to do with agriculture and industrial production?
As for the ruble, it really strengthened markedly over the past year: its rate increased by about 20% against the dollar and 25% against the Euro. But if you think about it, there is nothing surprising in this: after all, we have in the country in the autumn of 2014, announced by the Central Bank floating the currency. That is, this is the course on a daily basis is not determined by the administrative will of the big bosses, and especially the stock market factors. The “invisible hand of the market” works.
The stranger that beat ruble began his Federal Ministers of the economic block. It seems quite surprising considering the strong ruble is one of the few real achievements of our financial authorities lately. It managed to reduce inflation to record low levels in the newest Russian history. The population, exhausted by the continuous decline in real income, have experienced at least some consumer optimism. The purchasing power of the ruble began to rise, for the first time in the last two years there has been a revival of retail trade. Our people again felt the taste for foreign travel and the demand for package tours during the may holidays has risen by as much as 30% compared to last year. That is, the Russian population who receive income in rubles, a strong national currency is a joy.
A high-ranking “servants” of the government — it is a burden. They have, as it turns out, has other priorities: not the wallets of people, and, apparently, the interests of the exporting industry or any other influential lobbying groups.
I am extremely negative attitude to the wave of bans that we have in recent time covers more and more spheres of life and activities. But I think that the initiative of Sergei Glazyev waiting for his “member Spring” to cast it in a legislative ban for top officials to comment on exchange rate. Right, and our people, and our national currency, this ban will win.