Photo: Kirill Kuhmar / TASS
Held in Krasnoyarsk economic forum — this year there looking for recipes for economic growth. The observed RBC
The main theme of the Krasnoyarsk economic forum, which this year takes place for the 14th time, became the search of solutions for economic growth. Their program of reform in Russia is now preparing several organizations, key documents, develop the Ministry of economic development and the Center for strategic research (CSR). It is about their competition and build the plenary session of the forum.
The “squeaky car”
“System of governance I would rate today as a creaky old machine with low speed, which has high power, which we must not stop there and each time adjust their movement. But the result is small”, — said the Chairman of the Board Alexei Kudrin. Only 38% of the officials engaged in their duties, others work in emergency mode and perform the “chaotic” order, said Kudrin. This is one of the reasons for low economic growth in the last ten years he averages 1.5%, although in the beginning of zero was 7%. “The last ten years we go from crisis to crisis with little respite, we have nothing to boast,” complained the former Finance Minister.
New management approaches trying to build the Ministry of economic development, said the head Maxim Oreshkin. To this end, the Ministry established a Department for change management, which will help to introduce a “horizontal management principles”.
Later on in “the creaking of machines,” said the Kremlin. “The state machine is large, but we have a big country. Of course, the state machine control is large, such a vast country and the largest economy sudden movements by the laws of physics can not commit”, — said the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov. The Minister for open government Mikhail Abyzov held that the state “still is not squeaky cart, <…> still, this is a car of economic class.”
Russia does a lot of structural problems, Kudrin said, focusing on the expansion of the state in the economy. Now energy state-owned companies bring 70% of revenue, in Finance — 46%, in six or seven years their share is expected to decline to 15-20%. Responsible for low growth is largely sustained by the public sector with its “very weak policy,” and in order to remedy this problem, we need to encourage Russian companies to enter international markets, Kudrin believes. If Russia will double its non-oil exports in six years, the growth rate was above 2% she will not.
“I don’t understand the strategy”
CSR is preparing a reform strategy for the period up to 2024, the economic development Ministry in its plan with the expectation to 2025. One and the other program needs to be presented in the next month. . On the question whether there is competition between programs, acknowledged that it exists, but it is positive competition. However, the task of the CSR is larger, made clear Kudrin: the center works not only over the economy but over politics, judicial system, law enforcement system. In prisons and detention centers are sitting more than 600 thousand, 200 thousand to guard them, and if to take into account the family’s last, it turns out that more than million people are engaged only in the sphere of protection, citing Kudrin. With the current demographic challenges need to revise the punishment for petty crimes and reduce it — often conclusion for two to three years is excessive punishment, says the head of the CSR.
But the strategies are not everything. This is not the first program, recalled Dean of the economic faculty of Moscow state University Alexander Auzan and the past is almost not performed. You need to consider the existence of groups interested in reforms, and to consider compensation for them. Abyzov and even admitted: “I really don’t understand what the agenda of Russia for the period till 2025”. He was asked to name three key measures to accelerate growth. Kudrin retorted that in three steps the program does not fit, then reminded the head of the project “open government” that the government was open did not become. Abyzov during the operation did only 5% of what needed to be done, thinking Kudrin. But it is not the Minister, he assured Abyzov, just that agencies don’t want to make its activities transparent, a good example is crime statistics.
Photo: Kirill Kuhmar / TASS
To predict the unpredictable
On the background of the conversation about reducing the role of government in the economy, this role is only growing, the burden on business increases when reasoning about its decline, and shows that about one — center of economic policymaking is not in the relevant departments. Such a conclusion at the session devoted to the predictability of conditions for business, was made President of the Association of private pension funds Sergey Belyakov. The Ministry, in his opinion, saying all the right things, but also taken the wrong decisions. “A choice between economic growth and the sustainability of economic growth will be made in favor of pace”, — said Belyakov.
People want to invest, but in Russia there was a “comfort” understanding the strategy of the country and society, said a senior partner at McKinsey, yermolai Solzhenitsyn. The highest risk in terms of unpredictability of legislative initiatives that a business is either not discussed or not accepted in the version which suits the company, said later the Deputy General Director of IBS Tatiana Popova. This is especially true for the digital economy (the law on personal data about news aggregators, on taxi aggregators, trading platforms), which becomes more attractive the jurisdiction of other countries.
There are three crucial elements to the economy — transparency, clarity and predictability, abstractly reasoned in response.. “You can make transparent regulation, but it will be so complex that will not clear, and to sense from it will not. You can do some simple things, but they are close, no one will understand how they work,” he said.
What’s wrong with the regions
Evaluation of the effectiveness of the regional authorities need to reconsider, says Deputy Minister of economic development Alexander Tsybulsky at the session on new regional policy. To assess their need not by funds, but by special performance indicators. In the current situation, the authorities of constituent entities become a cashier because of the numerous instructions from the Federal center.
The amount of subsidies it is necessary to integrate, described regional experience acting Governor of the Perm edge Maxim Reshetnikov, until February the head of the Department of economic policy and development of Moscow. Now the size of some subsidies may amount to 7 million rubles., he described, but work for them and reporting on them will outweigh this amount. Problems in the technology of obtaining subsidies, complained Reshetnikov, is a “time-consuming and cumbersome design.”